PITWALL
F1 RACE STRATEGY SIMULATOR ยท 2026
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โ† 2026 Season Results
ROUND
2

Chinese Grand Prix

2026-03-15ยท56 laps

Kimi Antonelli claimed his maiden Formula 1 victory at the Chinese Grand Prix, converting pole position into a composed win to become the second-youngest race winner in the sport's history. Lewis Hamilton briefly grabbed the lead off the line from P3, but Antonelli reclaimed it before the end of Lap 2 and was never seriously troubled again, beating teammate George Russell by 5.515 seconds for a Mercedes 1-2. Hamilton held on to third for his first Grand Prix podium in Ferrari colours, with Charles Leclerc fourth. McLaren endured a disastrous weekend as both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri failed to start with separate power unit electrical faults, joined on the sidelines by Gabriel Bortoleto and Alex Albon, also non-starters. Max Verstappen retired after 45 laps with a suspected power unit issue, one of three retirements alongside Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll.

Race Winner
Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
Fastest Lap
1:35.275
Kimi Antonelli
Conditions
โ˜€ Dry

Circuit Profile

Shanghai International Circuit
Lap length
5.451 km
Race distance
56 laps ยท 305.3 km
Tyre allocation
H C2 ยท M C3 ยท S C4
Pit-lane loss (model)
โ‰ˆ 24 s
Tyre degradation
Low
Overtaking
Easier

Pit-lane loss, degradation and overtaking are PITWALL simulator inputs for this circuit, not official figures.

Shanghai International Circuit circuit guide โ†’Run this circuit in the simulator โ†’

Qualifying

POSDriverQ1Q2Q3Grid
1Kimi Antonelli1:33.3051:32.4431:32.0641
2George Russell1:33.2621:32.5231:32.2862
3Lewis Hamilton1:33.5221:32.5671:32.4153
4Charles Leclerc1:33.1751:32.4861:32.4284
5Oscar Piastri1:33.5901:33.1301:32.5505
6Lando Norris1:33.5351:32.9101:32.6086
7Pierre Gasly1:33.7881:33.0031:32.8737
8Max Verstappen1:33.4171:33.0981:33.0028
9Isack Hadjar1:33.6321:33.3521:33.1219
10Oliver Bearman1:33.6871:33.1971:33.29210
11Nico Hulkenberg1:34.1161:33.354โ€”11
12Franco Colapinto1:33.6341:33.357โ€”12
13Esteban Ocon1:33.9741:33.538โ€”13
14Liam Lawson1:34.1391:33.765โ€”14
15Arvid Lindblad1:33.9061:33.784โ€”15
16Gabriel Bortoleto1:33.5491:33.965โ€”16
17Carlos Sainz1:34.317โ€”โ€”17
18Alexander Albon1:34.772โ€”โ€”22(+4 Penalty)
19Fernando Alonso1:35.203โ€”โ€”18
20Valtteri Bottas1:35.436โ€”โ€”19
21Lance Stroll1:35.995โ€”โ€”20
22Sergio Perez1:36.906โ€”โ€”21

Grid to Finish

Places gained or lost between the starting grid (after penalties) and the flag, for 15 of 15 classified drivers.

Biggest gains
Carlos SainzP17 โ†’ P9+8
Liam LawsonP14 โ†’ P7+7
Valtteri BottasP19 โ†’ P13+6
Biggest losses
Esteban OconP13 โ†’ P14-1

Sprint Race

POSDriverTimeGapPts
1George Russell2018.998Leader+8
2Charles Leclerc2019.672+0.674+7
3Lewis Hamilton2021.552+2.554+6
4Lando Norris2023.431+4.433+5
5Kimi Antonelli2024.686+5.688+4
6Oscar Piastri2025.807+6.809+3
7Liam Lawson2029.898+10.900+2
8Oliver Bearman2030.269+11.271+1
9Max Verstappen2030.617+11.619โ€”
10Esteban Ocon2032.885+13.887โ€”
11Pierre Gasly2033.778+14.780โ€”
12Carlos Sainz2034.751+15.753โ€”
13Gabriel Bortoleto2034.856+15.858โ€”
14Franco Colapinto2035.391+16.393โ€”
15Isack Hadjar2035.428+16.430โ€”
16Alexander Albon2039.012+20.014โ€”
17Fernando Alonso2040.597+21.599โ€”
18Lance Stroll2040.969+21.971โ€”
19Sergio Perez2047.239+28.241 (incl. 5s penalty)โ€”
20Nico HulkenbergDNFDNFโ€”
21Valtteri BottasDNFDNFโ€”
22Arvid LindbladDNFDNFโ€”

Race Timeline

๐ŸšฆLAP 1Lights out โ€” 56 laps scheduled
๐ŸŽLAP 1Lewis Hamilton gets the jump from third on the grid to lead both Mercedes off the start.
๐Ÿ”งLAP 1First pit stop of the race: Isack Hadjar switches to Hard
๐ŸŽLAP 2Antonelli retakes the lead from Hamilton before the end of the second lap and is never headed again.
๐Ÿ†LAP 10Race winner Kimi Antonelli makes stop 1, fitting Hard
๐ŸŽLAP 45Max Verstappen retires with a suspected power unit issue.
๐Ÿ”งLAP 46Last pit stop of the race: Esteban Ocon switches to Soft
๐ŸŽLAP 52Antonelli sets the fastest lap of the race on his way to sealing the win by 5.515 seconds.
๐ŸLAP 56Chequered flag โ€” Kimi Antonelli wins

Tyre Strategy

Every stint for the 15 classified drivers with recorded pit data (15 classified in total). Bar lengths are to scale with the 56-lap race distance.

P1Kimi Antonelli
M 10
H 46
P2George Russell
M 10
H 46
P3Lewis Hamilton
M 10
H 46
P4Charles Leclerc
M 10
H 46
P5Oliver Bearman
M 10
H 46
P6Pierre Gasly
M 10
H 46
P7Liam Lawson
M 9
H 47
P8Isack Hadjar
S
H 9
H 46
P9Carlos Sainz
M 9
H 47
P10Franco Colapinto
H 32
M 24
P11Nico Hulkenberg
H 35
M 21
P12Arvid Lindblad
H 42
M 14
P13Valtteri Bottas
M 10
H 46
P14Esteban Ocon
H 29
M 17
S 10
P15Sergio Perez
M 11
H 45
LAP 1LAP 28LAP 56
One-stop
13
Two-stop
2

Winner's strategy: Medium โ†’ Hard

Longest stint: Liam Lawson, 47 laps on Hard

Compound sequences used
Medium โ†’ Hard
10 driver(s) ยท best result P1
Hard โ†’ Medium
3 driver(s) ยท best result P10
Soft โ†’ Hard โ†’ Hard
1 driver(s) ยท best result P8
Hard โ†’ Medium โ†’ Soft
1 driver(s) ยท best result P14

Pit Stops & Neutralisations

First stops came between lap 1 and lap 42, with a median of lap 10.

Actual vs PITWALL Simulation

PITWALL model output ยท not official data

PITWALL replayed this race 40 times from the real starting grid, with all 15 finishers on the strategies they actually used. It then kept every rival's strategy fixed and tested alternative strategies for the winner, Kimi Antonelli.

StrategyStopsAvg finishWinRace time vs actual
ActualMHL101P5.50%โ€”
MSL361P1.0100%โˆ’12.6 s
HSL361P1.0100%โˆ’12.4 s
SML301P1.098%โˆ’11.5 s
MSL16SL372P7.00%+2.4 s
HSL16SL372P6.90%+2.7 s
SSL16ML402P7.40%+4.3 s

In PITWALL's model, Medium โ†’ Soft would have been 12.6 s quicker than the strategy Kimi Antonelli actually used.

Model check: with everyone on their real strategy, the simulated finishing positions were on average 5.0 places away from the real result, and Kimi Antonelli won 0% of the simulated races.

Retired cars are left out of the replay. Safety Car and VSC periods use the simulator's default length, because the race data records only when they were called. Model replay-2, computed 2026-10-23. How the simulator works and its limits โ†’

Why They Lost

Strategy and race factors that shaped the result for drivers who finished behind Kimi Antonelli.

P8Isack HadjarRed Bull Racing
  • โ–ธMade 2 stops to the winner's 1, conceding track position on the extra in-lap and out-lap.
  • โ–ธPitted 9 laps earlier than Kimi Antonelli (lap 1 vs 10), exposing the next stint to more wear.
P14Esteban OconHaas
  • โ–ธMade 2 stops to the winner's 1, conceding track position on the extra in-lap and out-lap.
  • โ–ธPitted 19 laps later than Kimi Antonelli (lap 29 vs 10), losing time on worn tyres before the stop.
P10Franco ColapintoAlpine
  • โ–ธPitted 22 laps later than Kimi Antonelli (lap 32 vs 10), losing time on worn tyres before the stop.
P11Nico HulkenbergAudi
  • โ–ธPitted 25 laps later than Kimi Antonelli (lap 35 vs 10), losing time on worn tyres before the stop.
P12Arvid LindbladRacing Bulls
  • โ–ธPitted 32 laps later than Kimi Antonelli (lap 42 vs 10), losing time on worn tyres before the stop.
DNFMax VerstappenRed Bull Racing
  • โ–ธRetired before the finish (DNF).

Strategy Breakdown

Replay any strategy in the PITWALL simulator โ†’

POSDriverStrategyTimeGap
1
Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
Mโ†’HL10
1:33:15.607+0.000โ–ถ Simulate
2
George Russell
Mercedes
Mโ†’HL10
1:33:21.122+5.515โ–ถ Simulate
3
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari
Mโ†’HL10
1:33:40.874+25.267โ–ถ Simulate
4
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
Mโ†’HL10
1:33:44.501+28.894โ–ถ Simulate
5
Oliver Bearman
Haas
Mโ†’HL10
1:34:12.875+57.268โ–ถ Simulate
6
Pierre Gasly
Alpine
Mโ†’HL10
1:34:15.254+59.647โ–ถ Simulate
7
Liam Lawson
Racing Bulls
Mโ†’HL9
1:34:36.195+80.588โ–ถ Simulate
8
Isack Hadjar
Red Bull Racing
Sโ†’HL1โ†’HL10
1:34:42.854+87.247โ–ถ Simulate
9
Carlos Sainz
Williams
Mโ†’HL9
1:33:27.280+1 lapโ–ถ Simulate
10
Franco Colapinto
Alpine
Hโ†’ML32
1:33:28.010+1 lapโ–ถ Simulate
11
Nico Hulkenberg
Audi
Hโ†’ML35
1:33:36.716+1 lapโ–ถ Simulate
12
Arvid Lindblad
Racing Bulls
Hโ†’ML42
1:33:38.435+1 lapโ–ถ Simulate
13
Valtteri Bottas
Cadillac
Mโ†’HL10
1:34:11.765+1 lapโ–ถ Simulate
14
Esteban Ocon
Haas
Hโ†’ML29โ†’SL46
1:34:21.863+1 lapโ–ถ Simulate
15
Sergio Perez
Cadillac
Mโ†’HL11
1:34:30.248+1 lapโ–ถ Simulate
16
Max Verstappen
Red Bull Racing
Sโ†’HL9
โ€”DNFโ€”
17
Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin
Hโ†’ML31
โ€”DNFโ€”
18
Lance Stroll
Aston Martin
H
โ€”DNFโ€”
19
Oscar Piastri
McLaren
M
โ€”DNSโ€”
20
Lando Norris
McLaren
H
โ€”DNSโ€”
21
Gabriel Bortoleto
Audi
H
โ€”DNSโ€”
22
Alexander Albon
Williams
H
โ€”DNSโ€”

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