Simulator Accuracy

How closely PITWALL reproduces real 2026 races

Every 2026 race with complete timing data is rebuilt as simulator input — the finishers in their order after lap 1, each on their actual tyre strategy, each driver's own clean-lap pace, and the Safety Cars, VSCs and red flags at the laps they happened — then run 16 times and compared with what really happened.

Finishing position error

1.18places

average places off, per driver

Rank correlation

0.93

1.0 = identical order

Winner's race time error

0.9%

average, red-flag races excluded

Gap-to-winner error

9.7s

average, lead-lap cars

Finishing position error by race

Average places between simulated and real finishing position, per driver. Lower is better.

🇨🇳 Chinese GP0.52

🇯🇵 Japanese GP1.02

🇺🇸 Miami GP0.76

🇪🇸 Barcelona-Catalunya GP1.22

🇦🇹 Austrian GP1.15

🇬🇧 British GP1.45

🇧🇪 Belgian GP1.09

🇭🇺 Hungarian GP1.07

🇳🇱 Dutch GP1.19

🇮🇹 Italian GP1.38

🇪🇸 Spanish GP1.95

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan GP2.03

🇸🇬 Singapore GP0.68

🇺🇸 United States GP1.03

How each race was tested

Nothing is tuned per race to make the numbers look better: every race runs with the same settings below. The first group comes straight from the real race; the second are model settings measured once from the 2026 season.

Taken from the real race

The finishers only (cars that retired are left out — the simulator can't make a car retire on the lap it really did).
Starting order = the real order after lap 1, cars spaced 0.62 s per place.
Each driver's real start tyre and the laps they really pitted on, with the compound they fitted.
Each driver's pace = their median clean lap ÷ the field's median (lap 1, pit laps, Safety Car / VSC laps and laps slower than 1.07× their own median left out).
Safety Cars, VSCs and red flags on the laps they really happened, for as long as they really lasted.

Model settings (measured from 2026 races)

Safety Car lap = 1.42× a green lap; VSC lap = 1.18×.
Under a Safety Car the field closes up to 1.3 s between cars, 60% of the way each lap.
Lap 1 from a standing start: +9%.
Each circuit's reference lap time is its median clean race lap; its pit loss is the measured median green-flag stop.
Tyre wear per compound and circuit, fitted to the 2026 race lap times.
Pace allowed between 0.96 and 1.045 of the field median (the real 2026 spread).

Run

16 simulated races per real race, on fixed seeds (4242…4257) — re-running gives exactly the same numbers.
Lap-time variation, overtakes and pit-stop times are random; the results are averaged over all the runs.
No random Safety Cars — only the real ones.

Race by race

Race	Position error	Rank corr.	Time error	Gap error
🇨🇳 Chinese GP 2026-03-15 · 15 drivers	0.52	0.98	-0.40%	3.5s
🇯🇵 Japanese GP 2026-03-29 · 20 drivers	1.02	0.97	-1.37%	7.7s
🇺🇸 Miami GP 2026-05-03 · 18 drivers	0.76	0.97	-1.32%	7.7s
🇪🇸 Barcelona-Catalunya GP 2026-06-14 · 13 drivers	1.22	0.87	-0.11%	15.5s
🇦🇹 Austrian GP 2026-06-28 · 17 drivers	1.15	0.95	-0.21%	9.2s
🇬🇧 British GP 2026-07-05 · 19 drivers	1.45	0.93	-1.95%	10.1s
🇧🇪 Belgian GP 2026-07-19 · 17 drivers	1.09	0.96	+1.86%	9.7s
🇭🇺 Hungarian GP 2026-07-26 · 18 drivers	1.07	0.96	-0.19%	8.6s
🇳🇱 Dutch GP 2026-08-23 · 16 drivers	1.19	0.94	— (red flag)	9.5s
🇮🇹 Italian GP 2026-09-06 · 19 drivers	1.38	0.93	— (red flag)	8.8s
🇪🇸 Spanish GP 2026-09-13 · 17 drivers	1.95	0.88	-0.19%	13.4s
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan GP 2026-09-26 · 15 drivers	2.03	0.75	-1.29%	5.6s
🇸🇬 Singapore GP 2026-10-11 · 15 drivers	0.68	0.98	+1.57%	10.5s
🇺🇸 United States GP 2026-10-25 · 18 drivers	1.03	0.97	+0.57%	15.3s

Inputs and results, race by race

Open a race to see exactly what the simulator was given and how each driver came out.

🇨🇳 Chinese GP · 2026-03-15position error 0.52

Laps: 56
Reference lap: 99.4 s
Pit loss: 24.0 s
Tyre wear ×: 0.36
Overtaking (1–5): 4
Compounds H/M/S: C2/C3/C4
Neutralisations: SC L10 (3 laps)

15 of the 15 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Kimi Antonelli	P1	P1.6	+0.0s	+1.2s	2	−1.7%	M → L10 H
George Russell	P2	P1.4	+5.4s	+0.0s	4	−1.7%	M → L10 H
Lewis Hamilton	P3	P3.0	+25.2s	+24.0s	1	−1.2%	M → L10 H
Charles Leclerc	P4	P4.0	+28.8s	+27.6s	3	−1.2%	M → L10 H
Oliver Bearman	P5	P5.2	+57.2s	+61.5s	11	−0.6%	M → L10 H
Pierre Gasly	P6	P5.8	+59.6s	+61.6s	5	−0.5%	M → L10 H
Liam Lawson	P7	P7.0	+80.5s	+74.5s	7	±0.0%	M → L9 H
Isack Hadjar	P8	P8.0	+87.2s	+94.1s	15	±0.0%	S → L1 H → L10 H
Carlos Sainz	P9	P10.9	lapped	—	10	+0.7%	M → L9 H
Franco Colapinto	P10	P9.1	lapped	—	6	+0.4%	H → L32 M
Nico Hulkenberg	P11	P10.0	lapped	—	13	+0.4%	H → L35 M
Arvid Lindblad	P12	P12.0	lapped	—	8	+0.5%	H → L42 M
Valtteri Bottas	P13	P14.2	lapped	—	12	+1.8%	M → L10 H
Esteban Ocon	P14	P13.0	lapped	—	9	+0.3%	H → L29 M → L46 S
Sergio Perez	P15	P14.8	lapped	—	14	+2.0%	M → L11 H

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇯🇵 Japanese GP · 2026-03-29position error 1.02

Laps: 53
Reference lap: 96.1 s
Pit loss: 22.9 s
Tyre wear ×: 0.62
Overtaking (1–5): 3
Compounds H/M/S: C1/C2/C3
Neutralisations: SC L22 (5 laps)

20 of the 20 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Kimi Antonelli	P1	P1.0	+0.0s	+0.0s	6	−1.9%	M → L22 H
Oscar Piastri	P2	P2.2	+13.5s	+3.6s	1	−1.5%	M → L18 H
Charles Leclerc	P3	P2.8	+15.1s	+5.9s	2	−1.5%	M → L17 H
George Russell	P4	P4.0	+15.6s	+13.8s	4	−1.2%	M → L21 H
Lando Norris	P5	P5.0	+23.3s	+18.2s	3	−1.1%	M → L16 H
Lewis Hamilton	P6	P8.1	+24.9s	+38.8s	5	−0.5%	M → L22 H
Pierre Gasly	P7	P6.7	+32.2s	+28.4s	7	−0.7%	M → L22 H
Max Verstappen	P8	P6.3	+32.5s	+25.7s	10	−0.9%	M → L22 H
Liam Lawson	P9	P10.0	+50.1s	+49.6s	12	−0.2%	M → L22 H
Esteban Ocon	P10	P8.9	+51.2s	+40.7s	11	−0.3%	M → L19 H
Nico Hulkenberg	P11	P13.7	+52.1s	+68.6s	18	+0.5%	M → L23 H
Isack Hadjar	P12	P12.3	+56.0s	+65.3s	8	+0.5%	M → L19 H
Gabriel Bortoleto	P13	P15.0	+59.0s	+75.0s	13	+0.6%	M → L22 H
Arvid Lindblad	P14	⚠ P11.0	+59.7s	+58.1s	9	+0.2%	M → L18 H
Carlos Sainz	P15	P16.0	+64.8s	+86.2s	15	+1.0%	M → L22 H
Franco Colapinto	P16	P13.1	+65.6s	+67.1s	14	+0.4%	M → L17 H
Sergio Perez	P17	P17.0	+92.3s	+88.9s	17	+1.4%	M → L21 H
Fernando Alonso	P18	P19.0	lapped	—	19	+2.8%	M → L21 H → L23 M
Valtteri Bottas	P19	P18.0	lapped	—	20	+2.2%	H → L19 M
Alexander Albon	P20	P20.0	lapped	—	16	+1.6%	M → L22 H → L45 S → L49 M

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇺🇸 Miami GP · 2026-05-03position error 0.76

Laps: 57
Reference lap: 95.1 s
Pit loss: 20.0 s
Tyre wear ×: 1.05
Overtaking (1–5): 3
Compounds H/M/S: C3/C4/C5
Neutralisations: SC L6 (5 laps)

18 of the 18 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Kimi Antonelli	P1	P1.0	+0.0s	+0.0s	2	−1.9%	M → L26 H
Lando Norris	P2	P2.0	+3.2s	+3.2s	3	−1.7%	M → L27 H
Oscar Piastri	P3	P4.0	+27.0s	+32.0s	4	−1.1%	M → L28 H
George Russell	P4	P5.0	+42.9s	+48.1s	5	−0.9%	M → L20 H
Max Verstappen	P5	P7.8	+44.0s	+67.2s	8	−0.7%	M → L6 H
Charles Leclerc	P6	⚠ P3.0	+44.2s	+23.8s	1	−1.4%	M → L21 H
Lewis Hamilton	P7	P6.0	+53.8s	+58.8s	6	−0.7%	M → L27 H
Franco Colapinto	P8	P7.3	+62.1s	+65.8s	7	−0.4%	M → L31 H
Carlos Sainz	P9	P9.1	+82.1s	+88.5s	10	−0.1%	M → L28 H
Alexander Albon	P10	P9.9	+91.0s	+99.0s	9	+0.1%	M → L27 H
Oliver Bearman	P11	P11.0	lapped	—	12	+0.3%	M → L26 H
Gabriel Bortoleto	P12	P12.1	lapped	—	16	+0.6%	M → L32 H
Esteban Ocon	P13	P12.9	lapped	—	11	+0.6%	M → L31 H
Arvid Lindblad	P14	P14.0	lapped	—	13	+0.8%	M → L28 H
Fernando Alonso	P15	P16.8	lapped	—	17	+2.2%	M → L41 S
Sergio Perez	P16	P16.3	lapped	—	15	+2.2%	M → L29 H
Lance Stroll	P17	P15.0	lapped	—	14	+1.6%	M → L21 S → L37 S
Valtteri Bottas	P18	P18.0	lapped	—	18	+3.5%	M → L6 S → L21 M

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇪🇸 Barcelona-Catalunya GP · 2026-06-14position error 1.22

Laps: 66
Reference lap: 84.1 s
Pit loss: 23.6 s
Tyre wear ×: 2.55
Overtaking (1–5): 3
Compounds H/M/S: C2/C3/C4
Neutralisations: VSC L41 (1 lap), VSC L63 (2 laps)

13 of the 13 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Lewis Hamilton	P1	P1.0	+0.0s	+0.0s	2	−3.3%	S → L11 H → L27 M → L41 H
George Russell	P2	P3.5	+19.5s	+11.2s	1	−2.3%	M → L12 H → L36 H
Lando Norris	P3	P3.4	+23.7s	+11.8s	3	−2.2%	M → L13 H → L35 H
Max Verstappen	P4	P2.1	+40.5s	+4.4s	4	−2.5%	S → L12 M → L29 H → L40 M
Oscar Piastri	P5	P5.0	+58.5s	+37.1s	5	−1.6%	M → L14 H → L36 H
Isack Hadjar	P6	P6.0	lapped	—	11	−1.4%	M → L15 H → L32 H → L58 S
Pierre Gasly	P7	⚠ P10.6	lapped	—	9	+0.4%	M → L14 H → L40 H
Franco Colapinto	P8	P9.9	lapped	—	8	+0.2%	S → L12 H → L34 H
Liam Lawson	P9	P9.6	lapped	—	6	+0.2%	M → L11 H → L35 H
Arvid Lindblad	P10	P7.9	lapped	—	7	+0.2%	M → L22 H → L37 H
Gabriel Bortoleto	P11	⚠ P7.1	lapped	—	13	±0.0%	M → L15 H → L33 H → L53 S
Carlos Sainz	P12	P11.9	lapped	—	10	+0.6%	S → L14 H → L30 H → L55 M
Esteban Ocon	P13	P13.0	lapped	—	12	+1.1%	S → L13 H → L34 M → L58 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇦🇹 Austrian GP · 2026-06-28position error 1.15

Laps: 71
Reference lap: 73.5 s
Pit loss: 21.6 s
Tyre wear ×: 1.31
Overtaking (1–5): 4
Compounds H/M/S: C3/C4/C5
Neutralisations: VSC L25 (1 lap), VSC L52 (1 lap)

17 of the 17 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
George Russell	P1	P1.2	+0.0s	+0.0s	1	−1.8%	M → L19 H → L43 H
Max Verstappen	P2	P2.2	+1.6s	+1.1s	5	−1.6%	M → L18 H → L49 H
Kimi Antonelli	P3	P2.6	+2.1s	+2.1s	4	−1.7%	M → L24 H → L51 H
Oscar Piastri	P4	P4.6	+21.9s	+11.5s	6	−1.4%	M → L19 H → L42 H
Lewis Hamilton	P5	P5.2	+26.9s	+12.7s	2	−1.4%	M → L12 H → L25 S → L42 H
Isack Hadjar	P6	P8.0	+29.4s	+26.2s	9	−1.1%	M → L18 M → L40 H
Lando Norris	P7	P7.0	+31.6s	+18.7s	7	−1.2%	M → L21 H → L47 H
Charles Leclerc	P8	P5.2	+45.7s	+13.2s	3	−1.4%	M → L13 H → L37 H → L59 S
Liam Lawson	P9	P10.8	lapped	—	8	+0.1%	M → L19 H → L45 M
Arvid Lindblad	P10	P11.9	lapped	—	10	+0.3%	M → L18 H → L46 M
Gabriel Bortoleto	P11	P12.9	lapped	—	11	+0.5%	S → L17 M → L44 H
Nico Hulkenberg	P12	P9.1	lapped	—	14	±0.0%	M → L21 M → L45 H
Pierre Gasly	P13	P10.4	lapped	—	13	±0.0%	M → L13 H → L38 M → L51 S
Oliver Bearman	P14	P15.0	lapped	—	15	+1.2%	M → L24 H → L45 M
Franco Colapinto	P15	P14.0	lapped	—	17	+0.8%	M → L20 H → L46 M
Esteban Ocon	P16	P16.0	lapped	—	12	+1.2%	M → L18 M → L33 H
Alexander Albon	P17	P17.0	lapped	—	16	+1.7%	M → L18 M → L37 H

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇬🇧 British GP · 2026-07-05position error 1.45

Laps: 52
Reference lap: 95.6 s
Pit loss: 21.5 s
Tyre wear ×: 1.42
Overtaking (1–5): 4
Compounds H/M/S: C1/C2/C3
Neutralisations: VSC L22 (1 lap), VSC L39 (1 lap), SC L48 (3 laps), SC L51 (1 lap)

19 of the 19 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Charles Leclerc	P1	P1.0	+0.0s	+0.0s	1	−2.0%	M → L25 H → L48 S
George Russell	P2	P2.3	+0.4s	+2.0s	4	−1.3%	M → L23 H → L34 M
Lewis Hamilton	P3	P4.0	+0.7s	+4.3s	2	−1.5%	M → L23 H → L48 S
Lando Norris	P4	⚠ P7.6	+1.1s	+11.0s	6	−1.0%	M → L28 H → L38 M → L48 S
Isack Hadjar	P5	P5.0	+1.5s	+6.3s	5	−0.9%	M → L19 H → L38 M → L47 S
Liam Lawson	P6	P8.3	+2.0s	+12.0s	7	−0.1%	M → L28 H → L47 S
Arvid Lindblad	P7	P7.1	+2.2s	+10.7s	8	±0.0%	M → L27 H → L47 S
Gabriel Bortoleto	P8	P8.2	+2.4s	+12.0s	12	±0.0%	M → L26 H → L47 S
Kimi Antonelli	P9	⚠ P2.8	+3.0s	+2.8s	3	−1.7%	M → L35 H → L41 M
Franco Colapinto	P10	P9.1	+3.2s	+13.6s	14	+0.2%	M → L22 H → L47 S
Pierre Gasly	P11	P12.6	+3.4s	+19.8s	11	+0.2%	M → L23 H → L48 S
Oscar Piastri	P12	P10.7	+4.0s	+15.7s	13	−0.6%	M → L2 H → L36 M → L47 S
Carlos Sainz	P13	P15.3	+4.4s	+24.0s	9	+0.9%	M → L20 H → L48 S
Oliver Bearman	P14	P15.9	+5.3s	+25.0s	18	+1.3%	M → L29 H → L47 S
Esteban Ocon	P15	P13.6	+5.5s	+21.0s	10	+1.0%	M → L21 H → L47 S
Sergio Perez	P16	⚠ P12.8	+7.5s	+20.0s	15	+1.3%	M → L21 H → L46 S
Valtteri Bottas	P17	P16.8	+8.2s	+26.4s	16	+2.0%	M → L29 H → L46 S
Fernando Alonso	P18	P18.5	lapped	—	19	+3.2%	M → L20 H → L46 S
Lance Stroll	P19	P18.5	lapped	—	17	+3.3%	M → L18 H → L46 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇧🇪 Belgian GP · 2026-07-19position error 1.09

Laps: 45
Reference lap: 112.5 s
Pit loss: 24.0 s
Tyre wear ×: 1.20
Overtaking (1–5): 4
Compounds H/M/S: C2/C3/C4
Neutralisations: SC L1 (3 laps), VSC L18 (1 lap), VSC L20 (1 lap)

17 of the 18 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Charles Leclerc	P1	P1.1	+0.0s	+0.0s	1	−1.5%	M → L20 H
Max Verstappen	P2	P2.8	+9.7s	+4.5s	2	−1.3%	M → L17 H
Lewis Hamilton	P3	P2.1	+15.4s	+2.9s	4	−1.5%	M → L20 H
Oscar Piastri	P4	P4.0	+17.1s	+25.8s	3	−1.1%	M → L20 H
Isack Hadjar	P5	P6.9	+21.4s	+39.5s	15	−1.5%	H → L1 M → L2 H → L20 H
Lando Norris	P6	P5.1	+22.1s	+30.5s	9	−1.0%	H → L30 M
Gabriel Bortoleto	P7	P8.0	+47.2s	+56.7s	8	−0.5%	M → L20 H
Arvid Lindblad	P8	P6.0	+48.5s	+35.1s	6	−0.7%	M → L16 H
Franco Colapinto	P9	P9.4	+74.1s	+68.0s	7	±0.0%	M → L15 H
Pierre Gasly	P10	P9.9	+75.1s	+70.6s	10	±0.0%	M → L14 H
Liam Lawson	P11	P10.8	+75.6s	+74.8s	5	+0.2%	M → L15 H
Nico Hulkenberg	P12	P14.1	+76.4s	+102.5s	12	+0.2%	M → L20 H
Oliver Bearman	P13	⚠ P16.0	+92.5s	+111.3s	14	+0.2%	M → L1 H → L20 H
Alexander Albon	P14	P13.0	+102.7s	+96.8s	11	+0.8%	M → L18 H
Carlos Sainz	P15	⚠ P12.0	+104.0s	+89.5s	13	+0.3%	S → L14 H
Esteban Ocon	P16	P14.9	+109.1s	+105.7s	17	+0.6%	M → L1 H → L16 H
Valtteri Bottas	P17	P17.0	lapped	—	16	+2.3%	S → L1 H → L32 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇭🇺 Hungarian GP · 2026-07-26position error 1.07

Laps: 70
Reference lap: 87.0 s
Pit loss: 22.4 s
Tyre wear ×: 1.17
Overtaking (1–5): 2
Compounds H/M/S: C3/C4/C5
Neutralisations: VSC L56 (1 lap)

18 of the 19 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Max Verstappen	P1	P3.3	+0.0s	+5.2s	1	−1.8%	M → L14 H → L41 S
Kimi Antonelli	P2	P3.1	+3.6s	+5.0s	4	−1.9%	M → L22 H → L53 H
Lewis Hamilton	P3	P1.0	+4.5s	+0.0s	2	−2.2%	S → L13 H → L30 H → L56 S
Charles Leclerc	P4	P2.6	+8.8s	+4.2s	3	−2.0%	S → L16 H → L36 H → L56 S
Isack Hadjar	P5	P5.9	+40.3s	+25.1s	5	−1.4%	M → L19 H → L42 H
George Russell	P6	P5.1	+42.5s	+21.8s	17	−1.6%	M → L27 H → L54 H
Liam Lawson	P7	P7.0	lapped	—	6	−0.4%	M → L21 H → L42 S
Nico Hulkenberg	P8	P8.0	lapped	—	8	−0.3%	M → L19 H → L39 S
Arvid Lindblad	P9	P9.4	lapped	—	7	±0.0%	M → L20 H
Gabriel Bortoleto	P10	P12.0	lapped	—	11	+0.5%	S → L29 H
Pierre Gasly	P11	P9.7	lapped	—	9	±0.0%	M → L16 H → L39 H → L55 S
Lance Stroll	P12	P10.9	lapped	—	18	+0.3%	S → L8 M → L37 S
Fernando Alonso	P13	P13.1	lapped	—	13	+0.7%	S → L34 M → L55 S
Franco Colapinto	P14	P14.8	lapped	—	12	+0.7%	M → L15 H → L37 H
Esteban Ocon	P15	P14.1	lapped	—	10	+0.8%	M → L17 H → L35 H
Oliver Bearman	P16	P17.6	lapped	—	14	+1.6%	M → L22 H → L42 H
Alexander Albon	P17	P17.4	lapped	—	16	+1.4%	M → L26 H → L54 S
Carlos Sainz	P18	P16.0	lapped	—	15	+1.3%	S → L18 M → L43 S → L54 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇳🇱 Dutch GP · 2026-08-23position error 1.19

Laps: 72
Reference lap: 78.7 s
Pit loss: 19.6 s
Tyre wear ×: 1.20
Overtaking (1–5): 2
Compounds H/M/S: C2/C3/C4
Neutralisations: Red flag L2, VSC L55 (2 laps), VSC L70 (1 lap)

16 of the 16 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Lando Norris	P1	P2.3	+0.0s	+3.9s	1	−2.1%	M → L21 H → L47 H
Kimi Antonelli	P2	P1.1	+11.5s	+0.0s	2	−2.3%	M → L21 H → L40 H → L56 S
George Russell	P3	P4.3	+15.9s	+10.0s	3	−1.8%	M → L17 H → L40 H
Lewis Hamilton	P4	P3.1	+16.8s	+5.5s	6	−2.0%	S → L25 H → L55 S
Charles Leclerc	P5	P4.3	+17.2s	+8.9s	4	−2.1%	S → L21 M → L43 H → L55 S
Oscar Piastri	P6	P6.0	+32.3s	+24.4s	5	−1.6%	M → L18 H → L44 S → L55 S
Liam Lawson	P7	P7.0	+70.0s	+52.4s	7	−0.9%	S → L21 M → L47 M
Nico Hulkenberg	P8	P8.0	lapped	—	12	−0.1%	S → L19 S → L48 H
Fernando Alonso	P9	⚠ P13.9	lapped	—	13	+1.1%	S → L34 H
Pierre Gasly	P10	P10.3	lapped	—	9	+0.6%	M → L18 H → L46 M
Yuki Tsunoda	P11	P9.0	lapped	—	11	+0.1%	S → L18 H → L44 S
Arvid Lindblad	P12	P12.7	lapped	—	8	+1.0%	S → L36 H
Gabriel Bortoleto	P13	P10.7	lapped	—	14	+0.6%	S → L11 M → L34 H → L53 S
Franco Colapinto	P14	P12.4	lapped	—	10	+0.8%	M → L21 H → L45 S
Sergio Perez	P15	P16.0	lapped	—	16	+2.3%	S → L29 H → L52 S
Carlos Sainz	P16	P15.0	lapped	—	15	+1.7%	S → L30 H → L65 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇮🇹 Italian GP · 2026-09-06position error 1.38

Laps: 53
Reference lap: 87.5 s
Pit loss: 19.0 s
Tyre wear ×: 0.36
Overtaking (1–5): 5
Compounds H/M/S: C3/C4/C5
Neutralisations: SC L3 (1 lap), Red flag L3, VSC L28 (1 lap)

19 of the 19 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Kimi Antonelli	P1	P1.0	+0.0s	+0.0s	13	−1.5%	H → L28 M
George Russell	P2	P2.7	+3.9s	+4.6s	2	−1.0%	M
Max Verstappen	P3	P2.3	+14.7s	+4.0s	3	−1.1%	S → L28 H
Lando Norris	P4	P6.1	+19.0s	+23.6s	6	−0.4%	M
Oscar Piastri	P5	P6.1	+19.2s	+23.7s	4	−0.4%	M
Lewis Hamilton	P6	P5.3	+24.7s	+22.4s	9	−0.4%	S
Pierre Gasly	P7	P4.4	+27.4s	+20.6s	1	−0.5%	M
Arvid Lindblad	P8	P10.8	+45.1s	+46.3s	7	+0.1%	M
Franco Colapinto	P9	P8.1	+47.3s	+34.5s	5	−0.1%	M
Yuki Tsunoda	P10	⚠ P13.6	+58.1s	+58.7s	14	+0.4%	H
Gabriel Bortoleto	P11	P13.4	+65.2s	+57.7s	10	+0.4%	S
Nico Hulkenberg	P12	P10.7	+66.2s	+46.5s	12	±0.0%	M → L27 M
Carlos Sainz	P13	P11.6	+74.1s	+49.7s	15	±0.0%	S → L27 M
Liam Lawson	P14	⚠ P8.9	+75.6s	+38.7s	18	−0.3%	M → L12 M
Oliver Bearman	P15	P15.0	+78.9s	+78.5s	8	+1.0%	S
Esteban Ocon	P16	P16.2	lapped	—	11	+0.8%	S → L27 M
Alexander Albon	P17	P16.8	lapped	—	17	+0.8%	M → L46 S
Sergio Perez	P18	P18.3	lapped	—	16	+2.3%	S → L27 M
Valtteri Bottas	P19	P18.8	lapped	—	19	+2.5%	S → L27 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇪🇸 Spanish GP · 2026-09-13position error 1.95

Laps: 57
Reference lap: 101.2 s
Pit loss: 26.5 s
Tyre wear ×: 0.15
Overtaking (1–5): 4
Compounds H/M/S: C2/C3/C4
Neutralisations: VSC L14 (1 lap)

17 of the 17 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Kimi Antonelli	P1	P3.0	+0.0s	+15.3s	3	−1.5%	M → L14 H
Max Verstappen	P2	P1.8	+4.4s	+0.0s	2	−1.6%	S → L14 H
Lando Norris	P3	P1.3	+5.0s	+0.0s	1	−1.7%	M → L15 H
Charles Leclerc	P4	P4.0	+29.1s	+27.3s	4	−1.4%	H → L48 S
George Russell	P5	P5.0	+29.9s	+52.8s	5	−1.4%	H → L14 M → L28 H
Liam Lawson	P6	P7.0	+86.8s	+76.0s	7	−0.3%	H → L44 M
Franco Colapinto	P7	⚠ P10.0	+94.3s	+108.9s	6	±0.0%	M → L14 H
Oscar Piastri	P8	P6.0	+95.9s	+63.9s	9	−0.6%	H → L42 M
Arvid Lindblad	P9	⚠ P13.4	lapped	—	8	+0.3%	M → L14 H
Nico Hulkenberg	P10	P11.6	lapped	—	11	+0.2%	S → L14 H
Esteban Ocon	P11	P13.6	lapped	—	10	+0.2%	M → L14 H
Pierre Gasly	P12	⚠ P8.0	lapped	—	12	−0.3%	H → L55 S
Gabriel Bortoleto	P13	⚠ P9.0	lapped	—	14	±0.0%	H → L47 S
Yuki Tsunoda	P14	P11.4	lapped	—	15	+0.5%	H → L36 M
Alexander Albon	P15	P17.0	lapped	—	13	+1.8%	M → L14 H
Oliver Bearman	P16	P15.0	lapped	—	17	+0.5%	H → L33 M → L43 H
Fernando Alonso	P17	P16.0	lapped	—	16	+1.3%	H → L14 S → L37 H

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan GP · 2026-09-26position error 2.03

Laps: 51
Reference lap: 110.3 s
Pit loss: 22.0 s
Tyre wear ×: 0.15
Overtaking (1–5): 4
Compounds H/M/S: C3/C4/C5
Neutralisations: SC L31 (4 laps), SC L36 (2 laps)

15 of the 16 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Max Verstappen	P1	P2.8	+0.0s	+4.5s	6	−1.2%	M → L31 S
George Russell	P2	P1.0	+0.0s	+0.0s	1	−1.4%	M → L31 S
Isack Hadjar	P3	P5.8	+10.6s	+9.6s	4	−1.0%	S → L31 M
Charles Leclerc	P4	P4.8	+13.9s	+7.2s	3	−1.0%	S → L31 M
Kimi Antonelli	P5	P2.8	+14.3s	+4.3s	13	−0.9%	M → L30 S
Lewis Hamilton	P6	P7.0	+22.2s	+17.1s	5	−0.8%	S → L31 M
Arvid Lindblad	P7	⚠ P10.1	+31.0s	+30.6s	10	+0.2%	M → L30 S
Esteban Ocon	P8	P8.6	+31.0s	+25.9s	9	±0.0%	S → L30 M
Oliver Bearman	P9	P8.4	+31.7s	+24.7s	8	±0.0%	S → L30 M
Carlos Sainz	P10	P11.2	+32.2s	+33.0s	11	+0.1%	M → L20 S → L30 S
Nico Hulkenberg	P11	P13.3	+33.0s	+38.7s	12	+0.5%	M → L32 S
Liam Lawson	P12	P13.7	+33.9s	+39.5s	7	±0.0%	S → L31 M → L36 S
Gabriel Bortoleto	P13	P11.8	+34.0s	+33.9s	14	+0.3%	M → L30 S
Oscar Piastri	P14	⚠ P3.8	+36.2s	+5.6s	2	−1.0%	S → L31 M
Sergio Perez	P15	P15.0	+41.1s	+42.9s	15	+0.7%	M → L30 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇸🇬 Singapore GP · 2026-10-11position error 0.68

Laps: 62
Reference lap: 101.2 s
Pit loss: 28.0 s
Tyre wear ×: 0.82
Overtaking (1–5): 2
Compounds H/M/S: C3/C4/C5
Neutralisations: VSC L8 (1 lap), VSC L39 (1 lap)

15 of the 18 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Max Verstappen	P1	P2.0	+0.0s	+3.5s	1	−1.5%	S → L32 M
Charles Leclerc	P2	P1.0	+7.2s	+0.0s	2	−1.6%	S → L24 M → L39 S
Kimi Antonelli	P3	P3.0	+24.4s	+12.0s	4	−1.2%	S → L23 M → L39 S
Lando Norris	P4	P4.1	+40.4s	+21.7s	5	−0.9%	S → L32 M
Oscar Piastri	P5	P6.0	+49.5s	+45.3s	6	−0.7%	S → L33 M → L41 S
Lewis Hamilton	P6	P4.9	+53.0s	+27.6s	3	−0.7%	M → L18 S
Liam Lawson	P7	P7.0	+81.4s	+63.9s	7	±0.0%	S → L31 M
Nico Hulkenberg	P8	P8.9	+83.3s	+86.4s	8	+0.3%	M → L30 S
George Russell	P9	P8.1	+84.6s	+81.7s	14	±0.0%	M → L39 S
Pierre Gasly	P10	P10.3	lapped	—	9	+0.4%	M → L29 S
Oliver Bearman	P11	P11.9	lapped	—	12	+0.4%	S → L33 M
Esteban Ocon	P12	P10.8	lapped	—	11	+0.5%	S → L28 M
Carlos Sainz	P13	P13.9	lapped	—	10	+1.0%	S → L31 M
Arvid Lindblad	P14	P13.1	lapped	—	13	+1.0%	M → L26 S
Sergio Perez	P15	P15.0	lapped	—	15	+1.9%	S → L21 M → L38 S

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

🇺🇸 United States GP · 2026-10-25position error 1.03

Laps: 56
Reference lap: 102.5 s
Pit loss: 22.0 s
Tyre wear ×: 1.20
Overtaking (1–5): 4
Compounds H/M/S: C2/C3/C4
Neutralisations: VSC L2 (1 lap), VSC L51 (2 laps)

18 of the 19 finishers replayed (the rest had incomplete strategy or lap data).

Driver	Real	Sim (avg)	Real gap	Sim gap	Grid	Pace vs field	Strategy
Kimi Antonelli	P1	P1.2	+0.0s	+0.0s	1	−1.3%	M → L24 H
Charles Leclerc	P2	P3.6	+13.2s	+6.9s	3	−0.9%	S → L15 M → L39 H
Max Verstappen	P3	P1.8	+17.6s	+1.3s	2	−1.0%	S → L13 S → L31 M
Lewis Hamilton	P4	P5.0	+18.6s	+12.1s	4	−0.8%	S → L14 M → L38 H
Lando Norris	P5	P3.4	+30.6s	+6.8s	8	−1.0%	M → L16 H
Isack Hadjar	P6	P6.4	+34.4s	+33.5s	5	−0.2%	S → L25 H
Oscar Piastri	P7	P8.1	+52.8s	+43.0s	7	−0.4%	M → L15 H
George Russell	P8	P6.6	+54.4s	+34.8s	6	−0.3%	M → L22 H
Liam Lawson	P9	P9.9	+79.2s	+50.1s	9	+0.1%	S → L25 H
Pierre Gasly	P10	P8.9	+87.6s	+47.1s	10	−0.1%	S → L24 H
Nico Hulkenberg	P11	P12.1	+94.9s	+79.6s	15	+0.8%	S → L29 H
Arvid Lindblad	P12	P11.0	lapped	—	12	+0.5%	S → L18 M → L40 S
Gabriel Bortoleto	P13	P14.0	lapped	—	18	+0.8%	S → L26 H → L50 S
Esteban Ocon	P14	P12.9	lapped	—	11	+0.8%	S → L21 H
Fernando Alonso	P15	P15.9	lapped	—	16	+1.2%	S → L28 M → L42 S
Alexander Albon	P16	P17.0	lapped	—	13	+1.5%	S → L16 S → L31 H
Carlos Sainz	P17	P15.1	lapped	—	14	+1.1%	S → L17 H → L38 S
Sergio Perez	P18	P18.0	lapped	—	17	+2.6%	S → L23 H

⚠ = off by 3+ places · pace: − = faster than the field median

What this does and doesn't show

The race pace, Safety Car and standing-start settings were measured from these same races, so these are in-sample figures; a race the model hasn't seen will usually be a little less accurate.
Most of the remaining position error comes from things outside the data: incidents, damage, penalties and team orders.
Canadian Grand Prix, Monaco Grand Prix are left out: their published timing data can't be turned into reliable strategies.
The page updates automatically as new races are added.

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