Race Predictions

PITWALL's forecast for the next Grand Prix — and how past forecasts turned out

Next race

🇲🇽 Mexico City Grand Prix

2026-11-01 · Based on 18 races (data through 2026-10-25) · 400 simulated races

Expected fastest strategy: M → lap 32 → S

Safety Car chance: 45%

WinPodiumMax Verstappen18%44%Charles Leclerc17%42%Kimi Antonelli15%38%George Russell9%24%Lando Norris8%22%Oscar Piastri7%23%Isack Hadjar6%25%Lewis Hamilton6%20%Pierre Gasly5%10%Liam Lawson3%10%

Try your own strategy for this race →

Track record

Every forecast is kept and scored once the race is run. Races marked “backtest” were forecast afterwards using only the races before them, so they are a fair test of the method.

Favourite won

4 of 14

Winner in our top 3

8 of 14

Podium picks right

1.6 of 3

Probability score

0.80

Brier score 0.80 vs 0.95 for giving every driver the same chance — lower is better.

Race	Our favourite	Winner (our chance)	Podium picks
🇺🇸 United States GP 2026-10-25 · live	Leclerc 19%	Antonelli 14%	3 / 3
🇸🇬 Singapore GP 2026-10-11 · live	Leclerc 26%	Verstappen 12%	2 / 3
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan GP 2026-09-26 · backtest	Leclerc 23%	Verstappen 15%	1 / 3
🇪🇸 Spanish GP 2026-09-13 · backtest	Russell 26%	Antonelli 26%	2 / 3
🇮🇹 Italian GP 2026-09-06 · backtest	Leclerc 24%	Antonelli 16%	1 / 3
🇳🇱 Dutch GP 2026-08-23 · backtest	Leclerc 23%	Norris 3%	1 / 3
🇭🇺 Hungarian GP 2026-07-26 · backtest	Antonelli 39%	Norris 3%	1 / 3
🇧🇪 Belgian GP 2026-07-19 · backtest	Antonelli 38%	✓ Antonelli 38%	2 / 3
🇬🇧 British GP 2026-07-05 · backtest	Antonelli 43%	Leclerc 13%	2 / 3
🇦🇹 Austrian GP 2026-06-28 · backtest	Antonelli 48%	Russell 8%	2 / 3
🇪🇸 Barcelona-Catalunya GP 2026-06-14 · backtest	Antonelli 49%	Hamilton 11%	1 / 3
🇲🇨 Monaco GP 2026-06-07 · backtest	Antonelli 54%	✓ Antonelli 54%	1 / 3
🇨🇦 Canadian GP 2026-05-24 · backtest	Antonelli 39%	✓ Antonelli 39%	1 / 3
🇺🇸 Miami GP 2026-05-03 · backtest	Antonelli 39%	✓ Antonelli 39%	2 / 3

How the forecast works

Each driver's pace is their recent form: the median, over their last six races, of their clean-lap pace relative to the field.
The race is simulated hundreds of times. Each time every driver's pace for the weekend varies by the amount real form varies from race to race, the grid follows that pace, and Safety Cars appear at the circuit's measured rate.
Everyone runs the circuit's fastest strategy with staggered stops. Qualifying, upgrades, team orders, incidents and penalties aren't known in advance, which is why no driver is ever a certainty.

How accurate is the simulator? →